In chapter 10, each RNA base added to
a random chain was shown to add 6 bits of primoridal information. So the odds of creating
an RNA molecule with 50 bases is now 1 in 2 50 x 6 or 1 time in 2 x 1090
tries.
With 2.1 x 1060 tries, evolution has a 1 in 1030
chance of creating a single RNA molecule with 50 or more bases. This number accounts for
the size of the universe. It also accounts for the age of the universe. Given that this
RNA molecule is just a random sequence of RNA bases, it is almost inconceivable that it
would know how to self-replicate. So the true odds are much more remote - and perhaps more
importantly natural selection plays no role until a molecule knows how to replicate
and knows how to use an energy source to drive this replication. Furthermore, the 6 bits
is only true if cytosine, ribose, adenine, guanine and uracil are the principle components
in all 7 x 1026 soups (see the favorable assumptions made for the soup on page
189). Given the experimental evidence presented in chapter 9 concerning prebiotic
synthesis of these chemicals, the idea of a self replicating RNA molecule should be laid
to rest. Life did not originate in this way.
Next: Evolution of the First Protein
Previous: How Many Primordial Soups
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