Zero
Tries
The goal of this chapter and the next is to show that given 5 billion years and an almost
unlimited source of energy, the probability of creating a protein or an RNA molecule is
vanishingly small. Furthermore, the probability that the molecule so created contains the
knowledge needed to self replicate is also vanishingly small. The chance of success is
given by multiplying these two vanishingly small numbers. The trapped scientist in figures
9.2 and 9.3 helps illustrate this concept. With zero tries, even a short combination
eludes the scientist (figure 9.2), and unfortunately, the required combination for self
replication whether protein or RNA is quite long (figure 9.3). This is why the origin of life
mystery is so hard to solve.
Figure 9.2: Zero Tries
Figure 9.3: Zero Tries with Long Combination
Next: Investigator Interference
Previous: The Origin of Life
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